European Union leaders are poised to open a new era of eastern expansion today by offering candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, with Georgia not far behind. It’s a historic moment that’s also fraught with risks.
Unlike the bloc’s earlier embrace of eastern Europe’s former Communist states, the new applicants all have territorial conflicts within their borders and Russian troops on their land.
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Ukraine’s determined resistance to Russia’s invasion accelerated acceptance of its EU ambitions in Brussels. Moldova seized the moment to press its case, too, as did Georgia, which fought a brief war with Russia in 2008.
While the membership process is long, there’s little sign President Vladimir Putin is willing to call Russian troops home.
That presents the EU with a dilemma of whether to make resolving the territorial disputes a condition of entry, thereby handing Putin a veto over its membership decisions.
Optimists point to Cyprus as an example of the bloc’s ability to absorb states with unresolved conflicts, or to the gravitational pull of the opportunities it offers as a force for peace in the Balkans.
But in contrast to the Balkan states or Turkey in the case of Cyprus, the Kremlin has never shown interest in joining the EU. It’s highly critical of the bloc’s expansion into its former Soviet backyard, regarding it essentially as the civilian wing of the NATO military alliance.
Unlike the three Baltic republics that joined in 2004, the accession process for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia begins at the most dangerous moment in European security since World War II.
The EU has always been a project aimed at demonstrating Europe’s “soft power” in resolving conflicts. Now it’s about to test that proposition against Russia’s readiness to pursue its goals with hard force.